NEW YORK -- Concern about the year 2000 problem is bringing the world together in
New York this week, but the likelihood that the meeting will produce a clear picture of
global year 2000 compliance is scant.

Year 2000 coordinators from 170 nations are meeting at the United Nations in hopes
of assembling a coherent picture of how well the globe's computer systems will be
prepared for the new century. A better sense of the planet's readiness is crucial for
large U.S. businesses that have had some of their biggest year 2000 problems trying to
find out how well foreign trading partners and consumers will respond to the date
rollover.

"We're at too high a level of abstraction to quantify risks," said John A. Koskinen,
chairman of President Clinton's council on year 2000 conversion. But this week's summit
still represents constructive progress by demonstrating that the world is is working
together, he said. "There are no major areas where people are out on their own," he
said.

Readiness varies

At a press conference Monday leading up to the summit, several regional and country
year 2000 coordinators offered journalists specific glimpses of compliance efforts
across the globe that ranged from well-documented to vaguely desperate. As in the U.S.,
the most is known about big businesses and utilities, while smaller businesses and the
general public remain wildcards.

The "regional" coordinators are designated as such by the International Y2K
Cooperation Center established by the U.N.

Carlos R. Jarque, Mexico's coordinator, said his nation has identified the
businesses at highest risk. Of 3.2 million businesses, only about 1 million have
computers. Of those, 300,000 have equipment new enough to be presumed compliant. Of the
700,000 with older equipment, 165,000 have networks and are therefore presumed to be at
the highest risk. Meanwhile, the government has spent $2 billion to fix problems.

Venezuela's coordinator, Hugo Castellanos, painted an equally diverse picture of
year 2000 awareness in his country. The oil industry has spent $200 million, the
banking system $500 million, the telecommunications system $100 million and other
public services another $100 million.

In Australia, which regulates its economy closely and has instituted reporting rules
for more than 1,000 publicly traded companies, year 2000 problems are under control,
said Susan Page, chief general manager of the country's year 2000 Project Office. She
handed out literature dated last month touting a high preparedness ranking from the
Gartner Group Inc., a $21 billion (Australian) accounting of the cost of year 2000
remediation.

Possible meltdowns

While awareness in those three nations is substantial at least at higher levels, the

29-nation region of Eastern Europe and Central Asia is struggling with a variety of
year 2000 issues, said coordinator Mario Tagarinski of Bulgaria. Many nations in the
region, such as former members of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, are in the throes of
transitions and upheavals more fundamental than year 2000 problems. Tagarinski said the
region needs help and elaborated only by saying, "It's a huge list." Later, when asked
whether it was fair to say that problems in some areas of the region would be akin to
meltdowns, he responded, "Yeah, maybe."

Sub-Saharan Africa, coordinated by Baba-Mustafa Marong of The Gambia, said countries
in the region also need help with money and staff. It iss, however, finding both
through the World Bank and other lenders and organizations.

East Asian nations, on the other hand, have paid their own way and with six months
to go probably won't find much utility in applying for loans now, said coordinator
Amable Aguiluz of the Philippines.

Scam artists

Another international problem area is dealing with the public's many-faceted Y2K
issues. Aguiluz said that one of his largest concerns is figuring out how to thwart
groups that may try to take advantage of consumers. Police need to figure out how to
combat scam artists and other groups, such as a religious group that Aguiluz said
offered to take care of followers' savings if they lose faith in the banking system.

Public ignorance of year 2000 problems is widespread in Mexico, according to
government surveys. Meanwhile, Castellanos acknowledged that the Venezuelan government
is struggling with what to tell the public.

» posted by ITworld staff

Computer World

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