Happy New Year, everyone! I feel a little silly typing that greeting this morning, since it's still a couple of weeks before January, but not as silly as I do about writing the rest of the column. It must be a disease of some kind, or a rite of passage for journalists. What else could explain the strange notion that we must, in the last few harried weeks of the year, put on our turbans, hold an envelope over our third eye like Johnny Carson, and make predictions?

So why am I doing it? I wish I could blame my editors, but they have too much sense to suggest such a column. The best justification I can come up with is: "Hey, everyone else is doing it, so why not?" I know for a fact that some of my predictions are the result of vivid dreams I had recently after eating a late snack containing some particularly potent habanero peppers. So please don't take my predictions too seriously; I certainly don't. With that disclaimer out of the way, here it is: my first -- and very possibly my last -- attempt to forecast Linux fortunes in the year ahead.

1. It's too easy to just say that kernel version 2.4 will officially be released in 2001, so I'll go beyond that. I'll predict that it kicks Windows 2000's butt in benchmarks on multiprocessor and multiple-NIC machines. And, of course, it will do the same on uniprocessor systems with only a single network interface card as well.
2. Given the result of the presidential election, I predict that the Microsoft appeal of Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson's rulings will result in his findings of law being overturned, but his findings of fact will stand. The breakup of Microsoft will be abandoned on appeal, and the lower court will be ordered to come up with new, less drastic remedies. Under the Bush administration, the DOJ will lose its zeal for pursuing the case to a just conclusion, and no substantial or effective remedies will ever be implemented. But that outcome will in no way impede Linux's growing popularity. It's simply too late to save the dynasty now, regardless of what King George might want to do for King Bill.
3. 2001 will be a year of consolidation within the Linux industry. Not only will the number of distributions shrink through attrition and merger, but the number of hardware and service firms will be reduced as well. The biggest wedding will be between Red Hat and VA Linux, as the two seek to become the IBM of Linux: a single source for hardware, software, and support. Not to be outdone, SuSE and Atipa will follow suit to keep
   

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