August 20, 2001, 9:43 AM — The hype about Linux's potential as a desktop operating system started years ago. But just as easy-to-use interfaces are being crafted for the operating system, which has had a stronghold in the server arena for a number of years, troubles faced by some Linux companies lead observers to question whether it will ever truly compete with Windows for desktop dollars.
Loki Software Inc., a company that ports video games to Linux, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection two weeks ago. Eazel Inc., a company that had planned to create a new interface for Linux and had generated a good amount of buzz due to the inclusion of a number of the original designers of the MacOS on its team, dissolved in May [See "Eazel eases into the sunset," May 16]. In the face of user apathy, Dell Computer Corp. quietly decided to stop offering Linux as an operating system choice on its build-to-order systems. Developments like this have raised questions about the viability and future of Linux on the desktop.
Loki, which has ported such hit PC games to Linux as Quake III Arena, Railroad Tycoon 2, Deus Ex and Heavy Metal: F.A. K.K.2, filed for bankruptcy protection after taking on more debt than the three-year-old company could manage, said Scott Draeker, president of Loki. The Chapter 11 filing will allow the company to restructure its debt and continue with operations, Draeker said.
The PC game market, on any operating system, is a tough business, he said, comparing it to Hollywood.
As in Hollywood, "most of the products don't really do very well. Most of the business is driven by a few hits, a few blockbusters." And, also like Hollywood, the bigger game companies have enough money to write poor-selling games off and wait for hits, but smaller companies can't do the same, he added.
"A lot of development houses are started up all the time and a lot close down all the time," he said.
Draeker expects that Loki will have continued success, however, because the company has "a relatively small, but extremely loyal following" which has already caused a spike in sales and offered to set up funds to help the company out.
Loki's Chapter 11 filing is, in some ways, more than just the story of a struggling company, however. The company, after all, sells games -- one of the major categories of consumer desktop software. If a company that sells a consumer product for Linux can't find a large enough audience to thrive, what then is the future of the Linux as a generally used desktop OS?
Draeker thinks that future is solid, but is still far off.
One major challenge that Linux will face in the near term is that of retail penetration, he said. As long as Windows software continues to constitute the vast majority of what's available in stores, Linux will remain at a disadvantage, he said. However, as the operating system itself improves, so too will its commercial success, he said.
"It's too early for somebody to predict how it's going to come down," he said, noting that Linux is not yet as mature an operating system as Windows or MacOS.
"Don't judge us until it's done and ready," Draeker said.
"The Linux desktop (market) is something we've very much looking forward to," he said.
Despite Draeker's vision, Linux's future may not reside on the desktop at all, according to Dan Kusnetzky, vice president of system software research at market research company International Data Corp., based in Framingham, Massachusetts.
"Linux is very unlikely to become a standard consumer item on a PC," he said. Though "Linux fits very well in the specialist environment," Kusnetzky expects that Linux will never win the fight against Microsoft Corp. as a mainstream consumer operating system.
"It's fairly clear that Microsoft is going to do its best to prevent any success of Linux on the desktop," he said. Microsoft is not offering its applications on Linux and is waging a war of words against the operating system in an attempt to squash any potential success, he said. Microsoft Chief Executive Officer Steve Ballmer went so far as to call Linux a "cancer" in June.
Linux also faces the obstacle of user awareness and access to the OS, he said.
"What drives people to the selection of a desktop operating system is not the operating system," but rather users choose the application they need to do their work and then find an operating system that the program runs on, he said.
Though "almost every major (Windows) application has an analog that runs on Linux," consumers either don't know about them or don't seek them out, he said. As a result, offerings like Dell's fail, he said.
