Analysis: Rambus sidelined as DDR deluge begins

Time has run out for Rambus Inc.

Motherboards based on Intel Corp.'s long-awaited 845-D chip set, which provides DDR SDRAM (double data rate synchronous dynamic RAM) support for the Pentium 4 processor, finally started hitting the retail market on Friday. The initial trickle of 845-D motherboards to appear in the coming days will soon become a flood, turning memory technology developer Rambus into a marginal player in the PC component market.

DDR memory has long been expected to replace RDRAM (Rambus dynamic RAM) as the memory type most commonly found in Pentium 4-based PCs. Both memory types are comparable in performance, but RDRAM is nearly 40 percent more expensive than DDR memory. A 128M-byte stick of DDR memory, for example, costs about US$24.50 while a 128M-byte stick of RDRAM costs around $34, according to spot memory prices tracked by market watcher ICIS-LOR.

Signalling that the switch from RDRAM to DDR memory has finally arrived, shipments of Pentium 4 motherboards based on the 845-D will this month for the first time outnumber shipments of motherboards which use RDRAM, according to the world's largest producer of PC motherboards.

Taipei-based Asustek Computer Inc. expects its December shipments of Pentium 4 motherboards based on Intel's 845-D chip set, which supports DDR memory, to outnumber shipments of motherboards based on Intel's 850 chip set, which supports RDRAM, according to Jonathan Tsang, the company's vice president of sales and marketing.

Until now, Intel has only offered one alternative to the 850 chip set for Pentium 4-based PCs, the 845 chip set, which supports cheaper and slower SDRAM. With the arrival of 845-D-based motherboards, Tsang said he expects to see a steep drop in shipments of 845-based motherboards supporting SDRAM.

In Tokyo's Akihabara district, an area packed with little shops selling individual processors, memory chips and other computer parts, the first motherboards based on Intel's 845-D chip set went on sale on Friday afternoon.

PC parts vendor Kosoku Denki received a shipment of 845Ultra-AR motherboards from Micro Star International Co. Ltd. on Friday and promptly put them on sale at 20,800 yen ($167). Another leading vendor, Tsukamo Co. Ltd., said it expects to receive its first shipment of 845-D-equipped VC15 motherboards from First International Computer Inc. as early as Friday. The company said the board will cost around 19,499 yen.

The prices are around 5,000 yen more expensive than comparable 845 SDRAM motherboards from the same makers, although prices are expected to fall quickly as supply increases and more shops receive boards.

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