February 06, 2001, 5:11 PM — While Java is the biggest new development language to emerge in many years, a
shortage of experienced Java programmers could dash all hopes within the IT industry
for large-scale Java deployment anytime soon.
Even an apparent dot-com meltdown is unlikely to free up enough Java talent
to meet IT needs. At the same time, training existing staff in Java is no simple
task.
Java was released in 1995 by Sun Microsystems, and the popularity of the cross-platform
language skyrocketed in the first two years after its introduction. From 1997
to 1999, the growth of worldwide Java developer seats occurred at a blistering
pace, expanding 62.9 percent over those two years, according to the "1999
IDC Worldwide Professional Developer Model." The same report forecast continuing,
if slower, Java developer growth in years to follow. Java, for example, is expected
to be growing at a still-impressive 29.4 percent in 2003.
Besides cross-platform support, improved productivity is a potential Java attribute
that intrigues application development managers.
"Java is finally getting to the place where it's widely infused,"
said Howard Rubin, executive vice president at META Group. "About one out
of eight new systems is being done in Java." Still, in many locations,
skilled Java programmers are difficult to find. Lack of experience may play
a part in slowing Java growth, as time and money are lost while companies train
developers.
For example, according to a recent study by Gartner Group, converting COBOL
developers to Java would prove too expensive and time-consuming for many enterprises.
"The cost of converting a COBOL developer to Java could be close to 90
percent of a COBOL developer's salary," said Joe Feiman, vice president
and research director at Gartner. And not all COBOL developers actually succeed
in learning Java, he noted.
Moreover, Feiman said there are many factors to consider besides cost. These
include the time required to develop software and train developers. You have
to ask yourself how long you can afford to wait for those people to get up to
level, he said.
Despite the cost, some companies may choose this route because of the shortage
of professional Java developers.
"It is impossible to find developers in some areas (of the world),"
Feiman said.
Although training can help alleviate the problem, many developers learn through
self-education. "There's a lot of do-it-yourself out there," Meta
Group's Rubin said. Books, informative Websites, and just plain on-the-job trial
and error.
According to Feiman, 40 percent of developers learn through self-training and
"hidden training," meaning that they learn as they go.
The result of this is that Java productivity has yet to peak, according to
Rubin. However, those experienced in it have shown productivity increases of
40 percent over levels seen in the traditional environment.
Java application quality is still hard to judge. "With the recent economic
rush and fast demand to learn Java, quality remains an issue," Rubin said.
Faster C++ migration?
Learning the new developer language can be more challenging for some IT workers
than for others, said Anil Hemrajani, CTO at iSavvix, a technology services
firm for Java and the Internet.
"Java's background contains a lot of features from C and C++. Therefore
it's easier for C developers than Visual Basic developers to learn it,"
he said.
In fact, Feiman's research at Gartner indicates that C++ programmers are more
likely to succeed in learning the new language, and do so more quickly.
However, unlike with those who learned C++ a few years ago, those learning
Java may not experience a traditional training style.
Rubin said, "People used to go to training classes and then do the work.
Now they do training as they do the job (which can drain productivity.)
"[There's been] some backsliding into bad habits from the early days of
computing. Some people think it's a marvelous productivity tool and they can
just start coding, and that's dangerous. You do have to design it, and you do
have to think about what you're doing. Because of this, we're starting to see
testing time going up," he added.
Gartner's Feiman pointed out that trainers might have more ready success teaching
some developers to be "casual" Java developers rather than "professional"
Java developers. Learning object-oriented design and analysis, Web architecture,
and application server design -- not just the Java language syntax -- takes
more time, he said.
