Master Foo blowing bubbles
Heading into the fourth quarter is always a busy time on Pentementi Mountain.
It is the time of year when a significant number of visitors received by Master
Foo are focused on predicting trends into the coming year. Some of these people
are investors. Some are analysts under pressure to write cogent trend reports
for their customers in time for thanksgiving holiday reading. Some are academics
seeking a deeper understanding of the forces that shape economic activity in
the information technology sector.
The first group of the day appeared to be a mixture of different types of people.
The only thing they had in common was that each was carrying a pad and a pen
with which to capture whatever blobs of wisdom Master Foo might exudate. They
collectively succeeded in shattering the peace on Pentementi Mountain with an
incessant babble as they approached. From time to time the words "trend"
and "bubble" could be clearly discerned.
Master Foo attended to thoughtful rearrangement of his flower expressions
internalizing the likely subject matter of their imminent questioning.
"Master Foo", the spokesperson said. "Do you think soap web
services are a trend or a fad?"
Master Foo stared back at the spokesperson and thought for a moment.
"Indeed", replied Master Foo.
Slightly shaken but flushed with enthusiasm the spokesperson forged on.
"Master Foo", the spokesperson said. "Do you think dedicated
e-mail devices are a trend or a fad?"
"Quite so", replied Master Foo.
More shaken now, the spokesperson looked around at his compatriots with a look
that said "help!".
A second spokesperson stepped forward. "What he means is...", the
new spokesperson began.
With a slight rising of his right hand, Master Foo stopped the new spokesperson
in his tracks. Silence descended on Pentementi Mountain. From the folds of his
hanful he retrieved a small cylindrical container. To the amazement and consternation
of all his visitors, Master Foo began blowing soap bubbles in the air.
When the air was replete with bubbles Master Foo began to speak.
"What have all these bubbles got it common?", he asked.
"They are balls", said one.
"They are light", said another.
"They are impermanent", said another.
"Yes!", announced Master Foo. Impermanence is the only permanent
attribute of all things. The soap bubbles you see before you are simply extreme
examples of the phenomenon. Everything around you; everything you perceive;
everything you yourself are is a form of bubble."
"Are soap web services a bubble or trend you asked? The answer is yes.
They are both trend and bubble. All bubbles are trends on the way up and fads
on the way down. All technologies are both trends and fads. The only differentiating
factor is the longevity of the fad. PCs have been a fad now for thirty years..."
"He is not going to answer the questions", one of the visitors said
much too loudly. Master Foo heard it loud and clear.
"On the contrary", Master Foo intoned. "I have answered both
of your questions with a single answer. Ask not what is trend and what is fad.
Do not set up a false dichotomy to trap yourself in. The question is trivially
answered. All technologies are trend and fad at the same time. Ask yourself
not what the intrinsic worth of any technology is. The important distinction
from an investment perspective is that each trend/fad has a time window. The
size of that window differs from technology to technology."
"But", the original spokesperson interjected, "there is no point
investing in a fad. I see lots of fads around at the moment. Things that do
not have business models. Things that cannot make money."
"On their own", Master Foo interjected. "The valley below is
full of examples of companies realizing real value on the back of what classical
valuation metrics would classify as soapy, bubbly junk."
"Bubbles can merge", Master Foo continued. "When they do that,
they can become bigger and stronger. They burst eventually but then again everything
does, if you give it enough time. The question is not will it burst. The question
is will it shine brightly for a period before it bursts?"
The visitors departed, some of them intent on revisiting some of the weirder
business plans that had crossed briskly from their desks to their wastepaper
baskets. Some intent on crafting advisory prose to the effect that lack of a
viable business model is not always grounds for complete dismissal of a new
technology.
[1]http://www.topxml.com/xquery/xquery_flwr_expressions.asp
[2] http://library.thinkquest.org/05aug/01780/clothing/history.htm
ITworld.com
Symantec Backup Exec 12 and Backup Exec System Recovery 8 deliver industry leading Windows data protection and system recovery. Download this whitepaper to find out the top reasons to upgrade and how to get continuous data protection and complete system recovery.
Data and system loss — from a hard drive failure, malicious attack, natural disaster, or simple human error — can happen anytime. Don’t leave your business vulnerable. Make sure you have a secure recovery strategy in place. Symantec's latest backup and system recovery technology can efficiently restore critical applications, individual emails and documents and even restore your entire system in minutes in the event of a loss.
Businesses face a growing challenge to ensure that the IT environment is properly protected. Backup Exec 12 integrates with other applications in the Symantec family of products, to complement your current data protection strategy, keep your data securely backed up and make it recoverable when you need it most.
