12 industry disaster scenarios

The end of the world may or may not be nigh, but in the tech industry, many of these possibilities could easily become reality

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Disaster scenario No. 7: Oracle starts charging for the JDKOracle could start requiring license fees for the JDK from everyone but desktop users who haven't uninstalled the Java plug-in for some reason. This would burn down half the Java server-side market, but allow Oracle to fully monetize its acquisitions and investments.

Sun tended to create markets but never really figured out how to create products people wanted to buy. When I worked for JBoss, I felt Sun was an evil bully trying to tax us; in retrospect, it wasn't half as mean as it should have been. Oracle tends to destroy markets to create products it can fully monetize. Even if you're not a Java developer, this would have a ripple effect throughout the market.

As for alternatives: Node.js is in its infancy, Python won't conquer the world, Perl is something we're unlikely to go back to, and PHP is ... PHP. Ruby is the most likely beneficiary, but Oracle could laugh its way to the bank. I actually haven't figured out why Larry hasn't decided Java should go this route yet. Some version of this scenario is actually in my company's statement of risks.

Disaster scenario No. 8: Oracle buys Red HatThis one has been rumored for a decade. You might think that everyone at Red Hat would quit -- but who cares? Not Oracle! Did it care when the MySQL folks "forked off"?

The acquisition would certainly benefit Canonical, which despite being most people's favorite Linux distribution on the desktop, hasn't really made a splash on the corporate server. My company is one of the few multi-million-dollar operations that I know of that runs it almost exclusively.

Buying Red Hat would allow Oracle to start monetizing Linux and give it a server-side operating system that people still want; I'm not saying Solaris isn't good technically, but its market share was already in decline before the acquisition. The new Horacle (this would be the nickname internally, I promise) would have a much stronger cloud play. This would offer the consolidated stack that Oracle has long sought with its rather pathetic Unbreakable Linux play. Prices would rise. And you can bet the nature of Red Hat's contributions and investments in various open source initiatives would change.

Disaster scenario No. 9: New draconian copyright legislation is enacted A number of proposals have been floated or are actively floating around, in the United States and other countries, to enact new legislation -- nominally in the name of protecting intellectual property -- that would impose new restrictions on technology and grant new powers to the governments of the world. Most if not all of the bills are far too broad, overreaching, and draconian, and they'd almost certainly have a chilling effect on civil liberties and the advance of technology.

Disaster scenario No. 10: The NYSE gets hackedKnight Capital's $440 million loss and Facebook's recent glitchy launch have revealed how vulnerable our markets can be to software bugs. What about a more systematic and deliberate widespread attack?

What if you randomly redistributed funds from DJIA companies over a period of months, then slowly drained the money out of the indexes before staging a massive DoS attack? This is a variation on the "Superman/Office Space" scenario. Simply shutting down the market probably costs a pretty penny.

Disaster scenario No. 11: Monster cloud outageRecently Amazon suffered a well-publicized outage that affected everyone from Netflix to Instagram. On the hypothetical Internet Richter scale, this was maybe a 5. Having to wait a few hours to catch up on "Breaking Bad" is annoying, but it won't end my day.

On the other hand, the cloud is in its infancy, and outages give big customers the willies. The worse they are, the more companies will think twice about moving their services, data, and backups to the cloud. What if Amazon or Google really screws up and has a multiday event or, worse, the D word: data loss?

Disaster scenario No. 12: The bad guys win the war on general-purpose computing Cory Doctorow gave a talk recently in which he discussed the "war on general-purpose computing." In this war, special interests are actively trying to restrict the purposes for which we can use the computing devices we own. If we lose this war, it will be commonplace to buy PCs that can boot only one operating system or computing devices that refuse to run programs unless they're "blessed" by a corporation or government agency.

The "computers" we have access to will no longer be general-purpose tools that obey our commands and can be programmed to serve any purpose we wish. Instead, they'll become specialized tools we use as "black boxes." Devices will report on our activities (without our knowledge), restrict our usage, and record our data, all without our say in the matter.

This article, "12 industry disaster scenarios," was originally published at InfoWorld.com. Keep up on the latest developments in application development at InfoWorld.com. For the latest business technology news, follow InfoWorld.com on Twitter.

This story, "12 industry disaster scenarios" was originally published by InfoWorld.

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