Google+ predicts 400 million users by end of 2012

Paul Allen (the Google one, not the Microsoft one) predicts Google+ will have 400 million users by this time next year. Clever, crazy, or misreading the data?

Based on the current uptake of Google+ by about 625,000 users per day, over 100 million will be "Plussers" by February 25th, and 200 million by early August. The current growth level won't quite reach 300 million by the end of the year, however, but Allen expects the growth to accelerate.

Why? Neatly tying in with the other success story of the 700,000 Android phone activations happening every day. Google+ will somehow attract them because of Google's efforts to weave Plus into all Google products. That could be wishful thinking, but the expectation of 200 million users by August will leverage the "network effect" will pull in that many more users does make sense.

Clever

Good grief but it's about time the negative reviews stopped pouring in. Now perhaps everyone else will know what the rest of us have known from the beginning. It takes some people a long time to wake up!

Giselle Minoli on google.com

Soon enough an active Google+ account could mean an inactive facebook account.

Eat_Eateator on venturebeat.com

Growth is definitely accelerating but so are the problems that cripple the other social network.

Steven G on google.com

I'm far more confident that as more people I know starters using Google+, I won't drown in updates I don't care about.

vidarh on news.ycombinator.com

Crazy

I loved the idea of circles, that is until I started to use them. The metaphor seemed nice at first, but it became frustrating after I moved past the first 20-30 contacts.

darklajid on news.ycombinator.com

Users are one thing, active users are another. How many posts are being made? Are they just signing up for these accounts and never coming back?

timdorr on news.ycombinator.com

Misreading the data

I have noticed a subtle shift in the content / quality / construction of many posts as well. The ratio of well thought out and insightful posts is down.

David Moore on google.com

Don't forget, if you create a Google account you automatically have a Google+ account.

starnix17 on news.ycombinator.com

I really with tech journalist would stop with the comparisons. They are idiotic and clearly because they don't get the concept of different platforms, different niche.

Del Williams on venturebeat.com

I accidentally created an account during Android phone activation, as it was very unclear (already had one on other account and didnt want another). They could get up to 700k a day like this, maybe this is most of them.

justincormack on news.ycombinator.com

OK, Plussers, start haranguing your friends. You're 338 million members short as of December 27, 2011.

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