Super-accurate data model predicts outcome of 2012 Major League Baseball season

Baseball is a game of numbers; these predict how the season will turn out


A mathematics professor in New Jersey has released his annual predictions for the upcoming Major League Baseball season, using statistics and chutzpah to eliminate the need to watch baseball until September.

New Jersey Institute of Technology mathematician Bruce Bukiet, "focuses his research efforts on the mathematical modeling of physical phenomena," according to NJIT's promotional bio.

In Bukiet's case, "physical phenomena" to be modeled include detonation waves, Internet search results, the mechanisms of balance in the human body and "a particular understanding of baseball and cricket."

We'll ignore the cricket comment for now, because no one actually understands cricket. (Those who know all the rules can't explain why anyone would watch a game whose short version goes on all day and includes a tea break for the players; like all unbalanced minds, however, cricket fans are rabidly enthusiastic about their obsession.)

Bukiet posts his predictions, calculations and analyses not only of baseball, but of lotteries, casino games and other gambling opportunities.

Since at least 1998, Bukiet's "particular understanding" of baseball included a statistical analysis designed to predict as closely as possible the regular-season results of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

In 2000 Bukiet developed an analytical model he's been refining ever since, scoring near the top of a list dominated by experts whose knowledge is of baseball rather than calculus.

Unlike most analysts who predict baseball or anything else, Bukiet also posts his results, comparing them (mostly favorably) to predictions by other experts. By his own count he came in first during the 2010 season.

By the count at stats-mad, Bukiet was the most accurate predictor of results among all sources tracked for both 2010 and 2011.

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