8 reasons tech isn't dead ... yet

The global economy is in as bad shape as we've ever seen. In the last two months, U.S. consumers have stopped spending money on discretionary items, including electronic gear, prompting this week's bankruptcy filing by Circuit City. Retailers are worried that Black Friday will indeed be black, as holiday shoppers cut back on spending and choose lower-priced cell phones and notebook computers.

Yet despite all of the bailouts and layoffs, most IT industry experts are predicting that sales of computer hardware, software and services will be growing at a healthy clip again within 18 months.

Here's a synopsis of what experts are saying about the short- and long-term prognosis for the tech industry:

1. The global IT market is still growing, although barely.

IDC this week recast its projections for global IT spending in 2009, forecasting that the market will grow 2.6% next year instead of the 5.9% predicted prior to the financial crisis. In the United States, IT spending will eke out 0.9% growth. 

IDC predicts the slowest IT markets will be the United States, Japan and Western Europe, which all will experience around 1% growth. The healthiest economies will be in Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.

Similarly, Gartner's worst-case scenario for 2009 is that IT spending will increase 2.3%, according to a report released in mid-October. Gartner said the U.S. tech industry will be flat. Hardest hit will be Europe, where IT expenditures are expected to shrink in 2009.

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