Such an agreement could have been driven by Microsoft's fear that a privatized Dell would abandon the traditional PC market, said Moorhead, who speculated that Microsoft would rather have numerous strong OEM partners rather than just one or two.
But it's as much Microsoft's relevance that's at stake, Moorhead argued. "Microsoft is having relevance problems in the personal computer, tablet and phone markets," he said, repeating assertions he has made in the past that Microsoft's Windows 8 and Windows RT have failed to excite computer and tablet buyers.
As with its deal with Nokia, Microsoft may expect its $2 billion to buy a lead partner in Dell, an OEM that would make more effort than others to come up with hardware that struts Windows 8 or a follow-up Windows 9.
But will that work now? Some think it's already too late.
"I've been saying for years that the PC business has been in decline," said Michael Cherry, analyst with Directions on Microsoft. "I realized that when people started looking at the PC like they looked at a TV set. The picture may be small or the colors may be off, but they don't buy a new TV until the old one conks out. They think about the PC that way now. They know what they have is old and slow. But when they ask themselves, 'Where do I want to spend my consumer electronics budget?' there are more compelling things to buy than a PC."
Truth be told, Dell had long ago de-emphasized the PC part of its business, even though Michael Dell famously started out selling PCs from his college dorm room. Once the world's leading seller of personal computers -- it held that spot from 2001 through 2006 -- Dell last quarter shipped 9.5 million PCs, according to IDC estimates. That represented 11% of the global market, keeping Dell in third place, where it's been since 2011, and more than 4 million units behind HP and Lenovo, the quarter's top two OEMs.
"This speaks to how much the OEMs' relationship with Microsoft has changed," said Krans of the Microsoft loan. "You can't operate a stand-alone PC business any more because computing is changing."
And the loan may not prove to be the firebreak against change that Microsoft wants it to be. "As a private company, we believe Dell could become even more comfortable ceding low-end PC market share to Asian competitors," said Marshall of the ISI Group.