I see much more competition. I also see a game where Netflix's key strengths suddenly won't count for very much.
Noting that "everyone and his aunt is getting into the streaming game," he cites two companies you may have heard of -- Apple and Google, each of which offers video streaming services.
And where will Netflix have an advantage? Will they get better deals from movie studios and TV companies than Apple, Google, Hulu or Amazon? If so, why? If I want to download, say, "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows"—or "Casablanca"—why should I go to Netflix.com rather than anywhere else?
Legitimate questions for Netflix and its investors. When Blockbuster announced a few years back that it was getting into the DVD-mailing business, I thought that spelled trouble for Netflix. But Blockbuster had internal problems and couldn't beat Netflix at its game.
Netflix's new competitors -- the cable companies, Apple, Google, Hulu, Amazon, YouTube, Vizio -- are many and formidable, most with far more resources to devote to favorable distribution deals, marketing and technical support.
Do you think Netflix has peaked? Or does it have even better days ahead?
Chris Nerney writes about the business side of technology market strategies and trends, legal issues, leadership changes, mergers, venture capital, IPOs and technology stocks. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisNerney.