October 01, 2012, 4:43 PM — Apple will introduce a smaller iPad in two weeks, and if it holds to past practice, will start selling the new tablet in early November, according to a report today.
"That's more than enough time to make the holiday sales season," said Stephen Baker, a retail analyst with the NPD Group.
Today's rumor -- and plainly stated as such -- first surfaced in Philip Elmer-DeWitt's column in Fortune.
Citing a source described as a "major Apple investor," Elmer-DeWitt said that invitations to an iPad Mini launch event would go out Oct. 10, suggesting an Oct. 17 date for the event and a Nov. 2 on-sale debut.
The Oct. 17 and Nov. 2 dates were predicated on past practice by Apple, which several times has issued invitations one week, held the ensuing event in the middle of the next week, then started selling the new product the Friday of the week after that.
Apple used that timeline last month when on Sept. 4 it invited reporters and analysts to a Sept. 12 function that introduced the iPhone 5; the smartphone hit retail and pre-orders began reaching buyers on Sept. 21.
"That timing is fine for the holidays," said Brian White, an analyst with Topeka Capital Markets. "And the timing is within the ballpark that people were thinking."
Ezra Gottheil, of Technology Business Research, agreed -- but only up to a point.
"I think that's late, but not terribly late," Gottheil said of the projected Nov. 2 sale date. "Ideally, you'd like to have a product in place for at least a quarter prior, so that you can tap people who are making decisions long before they buy."
Even so, Gottheil said a Nov. 2 start-of-sales obviously beats the traditional holiday season opening in the U.S. of Thanksgiving weekend. "Even if you were a little bit later, you'd probably get the majority of potential buyers," he said. "But remember, there are lots of alternatives, like the Kindle Fires and the Barnes & Noble Nooks."
White countered, noting that a Nov. 2 sale date for a smaller iPad would trump the $299 to $499 8.9-in. Kindle Fire HD, which won't ship until Nov. 20.
An iPad Mini -- as most have tagged a long-rumored Apple tablet with a 7.85-in. screen -- will have an immediate impact on Apple's sales and those of its rivals, as well as on the Cupertino, Calif. company's tablet market share, analysts have said previously.
They repeated those predictions today.
"[A 'Mini'] will be pretty big..., huge," said White. "Eventually, it will be bigger than the [traditional] iPad market."