October 15, 2010, 2:24 PM — Wait a minute. Forrester's latest take on the economy is that the Obama stimulus package boosted the outlook earlier in the year and that IT, on average, will have less to spend on technology toward the end of the year than Forrester thought earlier.
But the downgrade is from a prediction of 9.9 percent in July to 8.1 percent now.
That is still an astonishingly high rate of spending growth!
It's not only huge on its own, it's enormous compared to the wan and tubercular spending in the rest of the economy.
A lot of the spending projections depend on methodology and how cautious your assumptions are, anyway.
IDC started the year predicting 3 percent growth; so did Gartner. In August IDC upgraded the prediction to 5 percent, and even more for SMBs. That five percent compares to a drop of four percent in 2009, to the switch in percentage terms is a dramatic 9 percent, though it only gets us back to even plus 1 percent after the loss of 2009.
Even the rest of the economy, which feels like it's in the doldrums, is supposed to grow as much as 5 percent this year, though there's also the possibility of a double-dip recession,
NOBODY gets an 8 percent increase in anything year over year unless they got completely -- and I mean painfully, starkly, profanely -- stiffed on any budget growth at all for at least the last year or two.
Which, as it turns out, is exactly what happened to IT last year. And the year before.
So even with a downgrade in Forrester's over-optimism, IT and its spending picture sucks a lot less than it did last year, and not much at all, by objective standards.
So there won't be any developers dancing through showers of money, but who really wants to see that anyway.
After three years of bad news and hard shocks, we're all a little PTSD about anything hinting the economy is headed back into the pain closet.
It's not there yet, and there's no indication it will be, at least not completely.
Things are great and technology can do wonderful things for us. Let's just calm down and appreciate that for a minute.