- Juniper Research: Global NFC mobile payment transactions will be almost $50 billion worldwide by 2014. Some 20 countries are expected to launch NFC services in the next 18 months. (Prediction made in June 2011.)
- Yankee Group: The 7 million NFC-enabled phones in 2011 will grow to 203 million in 2015. (June 2011)
- IE Market Research: NFC will constitute around a third of all global mobile payments -- estimated at $1.13 trillion -- in 2014. (July 2010)
- Frost & Sullivan: 863 million units, or 53% of new handsets, will be NFC-enabled in 2015. The total payment value for NFC globally will exceed 110 billion euros (around $145 billion) in 2015. (February 2011)
- Celent: There will be 169 million users of mobile contactless payment in China in 2013, making China the largest mobile-payments market in the world. (November 2010)
- IDC: Worldwide mobile payments via NFC are projected to grow from $600 million in 2012 to $273 billion in 2017.
- Juniper Research: Almost 300 million, or 1 in 5, smartphones worldwide will be NFC-enabled by 2014. (April 2011)
Apple justified the move by saying that consumers already could use its Passbook app, which shows barcodes on the display, instead of NFC. The barcodes contain information that can be scanned by optical readers to let users board planes and redeem movie tickets -- tasks that Apple notes are "the kinds of things consumers need today."
In other words, Apple implies, customers don't need or want an NFC smartphone for making credit card transactions -- yet. Barcode scanning is used by Starbucks nationwide -- and has been more recently adopted by Dunkin' Donuts -- to subtract dollars from a virtual card on a smartphone that was previously loaded with cash.
Starbucks has described its barcode approach as a success; as of December 2011, the company reported over 26 million mobile payments. The company cites the relative shortage of NFC-ready smartphones and NFC terminals compared with the abundance of optical scanners on terminals. Starbucks even integrates its digital payment cards with Apple's Passbook and invested $25 million in Square, a different smartphone payment application.