"The iPhone 5S is expected to be an incremental release, with the same look as the current iPhone 5 but with new components and features," according to Seitz, who shows just how conventional Conventional Wisdom really is. "The most talked about potential feature is a fingerprint-reader for security and perhaps mobile payments."
Frankly, The Rollup is quivering...just quivering...with anticipation over this most-talked-about fingerprint reader. If that doesn't spell "breakthrough killer awesome magical feature" what does?
"Apple's next major update won't be until the iPhone 6, which could ship in early 2014, Caso says. That phone is likely to feature a bigger display to compete with handsets from Samsung, HTC and others that have 5-inch screens." That makes perfect sense. The world's best selling smartphone model needs to compete with all those other models that are each selling fewer units than Apple is.
According to Seitz' post, Caso believes that the "most compelling" iPhone feature that Apple could offer is a larger screen. "My thesis is that it comes next year, earlier in the year rather than later in the year," Caso says. "And that's the real reason to own Apple stock."
The Rollup's thesis is that we are fortunate that Caso isn't designing Apple's iPhones.
Caso is something of an Industry Worrier. In December 2012, he infected BusinessInsider's Jay Yarrow with worries about sales of the iPhone 5. Yarrow sounded close to despair in his post. "Apple's stock is down today, and the reason seems to be another brutal report about the state of iPhone demand," he began.
"But there's something about Caso's report that's stronger than the other reports we've read," he continues. "Maybe it's that he's more through and convincing. Whatever the case may be, it sounds really bad for Apple."
Really bad. Really, really bad for Apple.
"From our perspective, the difference seems to be that Caso isn't alone in his call. Lots of analysts are worried about iPhone 5 production and demand."
Lots of analysts. Lots and lots of them.
Caso's report then was especially worrying to Yarrow because it was different. The difference is, first, that it's stronger than the other reports and, second, because it's...uh, just like the other reports.
The only problem with this worry is that it was, and is, completely unfounded. Because people, who aren't analysts and bloggers, have been buying iPhones in very large numbers.