How many iWatches will Apple sell in the first year?

Today in Apple: iWatch sales may be in the millions. Plus: Apple's massive iPad upgrade cycle. And will a 64-bit iPad destroy PC growth?

By , ITworld |  Mobile & Wireless, Apple, ipad

How Many iWatches Will Apple Sell?
Analyst Gene Munster is predicting that Apple may sell between five and ten million iWatches in the first year of sales.

Apple could sell up to 10 million iWatches in the first year it launches the product, adding more than $2.5 billion to the company's top line and over $750 million in profit, according to a recent survey by Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster.

Apple shares rose 1.7% to $491.27 in midday action on Monday.

Munster asked 799 U.S. consumers whether they would by an Apple iWatch that connected to an iPhone for $350. Of those with an iPhone, 12% said they would be interested in the wearable device, while the rest said no, the survey found.

More at USA Today

I have to admit that I'm a complete luddite when it comes to an iWatch. I can see it maybe being useful for a heart rate monitor while working out. But beyond that, what exactly are people going to use these things for? It seems like just another doodad that will look cool but won't be particularly useful.

Then again I'm somewhat biased. I live with two parrots that regard watches, jewelry, etc. as chewable items. One bird just wants to play with them, while the other one will stop at nothing to utterly destroy them. So an iWatch is not in my future regardless of how great it might end up being.

Apple's Massive iPad Upgrade Cycle
Speaking of analysts, another one is predicting that the next iPad upgrade cycle could be absolutely massive for Apple.

Apple may be on the cusp of the biggest iPad upgrade cycle it has seen in some time.

This according to Cantor Fitzgerald’s Brian White, who theorizes that Apple’s upcoming iPad refresh, expected this quarter, will drive significant demand with a new design for the full-sized device.

“Given our research in Taiwan over the past few days, we believe the iPad 5 has the potential to be a significant iPad upgrade cycle,” White explains. “[Since] Apple did little in the way of changing the look and feel of the past couple of iPad iterations, we believe Apple’s sizable installed base, with 155 million iPads shipped through 3Q:FY13, is ready to purchase a new full-sized iPad.”

More at All Things D

I usually take all analyst comments with a grain of salt or two. But in this case, I'll make an exception. His comment about current iPad owners being ready for an upgrade really resonated with me. I currently have an iPad 3 and I'm keenly interested in seeing what the new iPad has to offer.

So White may very well be right. We'll have to wait and see, but his is the first analyst comment I've seen in a while that made any real sense.

64-bit iPad Might Destroy PC Growth
Since today's article is smitten with analyst comments, here's yet another one. A Deutche bank analyst is predicting that the next iPad may hurt PC growth significantly.

We...expect growing [desktop] virtualization and iPad deployments in the enterprise to pressure corporate PC sales through 2014-15...We expect AAPL's [Apple's] iPad refresh to include 64 bit architecture, which should enable a greater array of enterprise App development and facilitate greater enterprise penetration over time.

In the near term, back to school PC demand appears relatively soft and recent new hardware releases (Haswell) had little impact spurring incremental demand. Furthermore, we believe the corporate upgrade cycle will peak in [second half of calendar year 2013] as corporates complete Win 7 transitions ahead of Microsoft's ending support of XP in early 2014.

More at CNet

Okay, forget my last comment about always taking analysts with a grain of salt. Here's another one that actually makes sense. Apple knew exactly what it was doing when it upgraded the iPhone (and most likely the new iPad) to 64-bit.

Apple's eyes are on the enterprise, and they are going full bore toward dominating it completely with their mobile devices.

What's your take on all this? Tell me in the comments below.

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