October 10, 2013, 3:44 PM — Large Screen iPhone 6 in Q2 2014
Investor's Business Daily is reporting that a larger screen iPhone 6 may arrive as early as the second quarter in 2014.
Historically, Apple (AAPL) has released a new iPhone roughly every 12 months. But that could change with the iPhone 6.
A source in the tech supply chain in China and Taiwan told Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brian White that the iPhone 6 is expected to launch in the second or third quarter of 2014. That would mean the rumored bigger-screen iPhone would come out between the start of April and end of September next year.
In a research report Thursday, White said the bigger screen iPhone would have a display approaching 5 inches, vs. 4 inches for the current iPhone 5 series. Jefferies analyst Peter Misek said in a research note Monday that the iPhone 6 will have a 4.8-inch display and will be launched next September.
It wouldn't surprise me if this happened, there seems to be a significant demand for larger screen phones out there. Apple has to be aware of this, and they are most likely pulling out all stops to get a good one to market.
I know a number of people who switched to Android for the larger screens, but who are waiting somewhat impatiently for a larger screen iPhone so they can switch back to iOS.
Dismantling the Arguments of the Apple Bears
Daring Fireball takes a look at the arguments used by those who are down on Apple, and does a pretty good job of rebutting their sentiments.
In a sense, there are two rational Apple bear arguments. The first is that it doesn’t matter whether Apple can create superior products and experiences — the low-end competitors will eventually reach a “good enough” point that will disrupt Apple’s business. I think Thompson has made a good argument in this piece that such logic does not pertain to consumer markets, especially ones where fashion, style, and design are important attributes. Cell phones have always been about fashion and design.
The second Apple bear argument comes from those who think Apple has already lost its design and experience advantage — that devices from Samsung, Amazon, Google and whoever else have already equalled or surpassed Apple’s, and at lower prices to boot. To these critics, the nine million people who bought new iPhones in its first weekend simply haven’t woken up yet. Me? I think this second group is wrong about the state of Apple’s design advantages. (Shocking, right?) But I think they’re correct about Apple’s strategic needs. The only way Apple can continue to succeed is the same way they have succeeded for the last 30 years: by producing superior products and experiences than their competitors.
There is a third school of Apple bears, whose philosophy is perhaps best and almost certainly most-frequently espoused by Henry Blodget. This school holds, more or less, that while design quality may allow for a sustainable advantage in some fields, it does not for software platforms. That once one software platform achieves a large majority market share, developers will inevitably flock to that platform, no matter if it’s technically and/or aesthetically inferior, based on market share alone. I.e. BMW can thrive because its cars consume the same gas and drive on the same roads as every other car on the road, but the iPhone will inevitably shrivel as developers abandon it for Android.
It's pretty tough to disagree with John Gruber at Daring Fireball. He knows the Apple bears very well, and defends Apple's focus on design and the overall experience very well.
Maybe the real issue here is that the bears just don't understand Apple's customers or what they want? I think some analysts see Apple's customers through the prism of their own preferences in technology, and that's clearly a mistake.
iPhone Poised to Overtake Android Market Share
Techpinions thinks that Apple is nearing the point of overtaking Android in the US smartphone market.
comScore has recently updated their MobiLens and Mobile Metrix, data for US smartphone subscribers in August 2013. Many in the media picked up the point that iOS gained on Android during the month. While this is true, it has actually been going on for almost a year now. In November, 2012, Android peaked in the US at just over 53% share. Since then it has slowly declined. During that same time iOS has been slowly growing.
The iPhone does not compete with the low-end, extremely low-cost, Android devices offered free by carriers or on pre-pay plans from retailers, which is why comparing the iPhone to the entirety of Android is a mistake. Rather, to get a holistic picture of what is happening, we must compare the iPhone to similarly priced products. More specifically we must compare the iPhone’s market share to that of other vendors’ products at the same price points. When we do that, we get a clearer picture.
As you can see, the iPhone dominates the premium segment of the market. These estimates are prior to the launch of the iPhone 5c and iPhone 5s. For that reason, I specifically included devices as low as $400, even though the wholesale cost of the iPhone 5c is an estimated $549. I added that price point because I’m convinced that the iPhone 5c will continue to take share from devices — even those devices in the $400 wholesale range — which are generally priced at free by the carriers. I’m also convinced that this will happen in regions beyond the US, as well.
Given the fragmentation in the Android market, and Apple's emphasis on providing a superior experience for users, it's not surprising that iPhone market share is on the rise.
I think the final nail in the coffin of Android market share will arrive with the larger screen iPhones next year, as I noted above. Once that happens there will be no place left for Android makers to hide, except at the very low end of the market and that's not where the money is for phone makers.
What's your take on all this? Tell me in the comments below.