Thornton A. May: Is the future knowable?

By Thornton A. May, Computerworld |  Networking

Can we know the future? IT practitioners, like others who work for a living, tend to view future-peering as an esoteric, abstract and impractical exercise practiced only by eggheads in think tanks, economists in Europe and lotus-eating guitar pluckers.

But the future is where we are all going to live, and those who have some idea of what that place will be like will be better positioned to live there comfortably. As Al Ries, a real-world marketing professional, author of the book Positioning (and coiner of that term), has said, "The primary job of corporate management is to find the future. Not just the future in general, but specific futures for the corporations under their care."

I believe that knowing the future, or at least preparing for a shared perception of what the future requires, is a big part of the new IT skill set. Many CIOs agree with me. One says that a critical element in his decisions to promote his direct reports is the way they respond to his request to "Describe a day in the work life of your future."

Of late I have been asking executives this: "If your boss came to you next Monday and said, 'By Friday, please have on my desk a report regarding what our organization will look like 20 years from now and your thoughts on how we get there,' what would you do?"

Younger executives (those who are the children of the Internet but not yet the spawn of the smartphone) tend to suggest that you type into your favorite search engine some variant of "Future 2033." This exercise is not exactly clarifying. Using Bing, that query yields 273,000 results. With Google, the haul hits 10.2 million. (And remember, in search, bigger is not always better). A large proportion of first-page search returns point you to Mexican director Francisco Laresgoiti's speculative, dystopic sci-fi thriller 2033: Future Apocalypse. The next set of suggestions are a trailer for the video game Metro 2033; BarnesandNoble.com's early release of 2033: The Future of Misbehaving, an anthology examining the future of sex; and the article " Top 30: Things to Look Forward to in 2033," sponsored by SVEDKA Vodka. Going deeper, you might click on a link to an April 3, 1988, Los Angeles Times Magazine article offering a 25-year look ahead to 2013. While all of these entries are interesting, they don't help us comply with our boss's request.

Where Do You Find the Future?


Originally published on Computerworld |  Click here to read the original story.
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