October 19, 2010, 9:29 PM — Given all the dismal market-share statistics so lovingly reproduced by Microsoft and like-minded partners, it's not entirely surprising to see observers declare that the dream of the Linux desktop is dead.
After all, we've all seen the reports, month after month, suggesting that Linux's market share is stuck around 1%. For September, in fact, Net Applications says it was even lower, with a figure of .85%. Taken as evidence of Linux's success or failure on the desktop, such news appears grim indeed.
The problem with such statistics, however, is that they are not an appropriate way to measure the uptake of a free piece of software. In general, such market-share data is based on sales figures: "X copies of Windows sold per month translates into Y market share for the operating system," for example.
But how is Linux obtained? Unless it's purchased with paid support--surely a minority of cases--it's typically a free download, with no sales transaction involved.
Certainly there are sites, such as DistroWatch, which keep tabs on page hits for each Linux distribution, thereby providing a snapshot of market interest, if nothing else. Canonical, meanwhile, recently started tracking original equipment manufacturer (OEM) installations of its Ubuntu Linux.
For the most part, however, it's almost impossible to know how many copies of Linux are in use on desktops around the world. Even tracking downloads won't give an accurate picture because of the ease--not to mention the complete legality--of sharing copies of the software. This is clearly a data-collection challenge that needs to be addressed.
But is Linux really dead on the desktop? I don't think so. Here's why.
1. It's in More than a Third of Businesses
The most obvious news from the Linux Foundation's study last week was that Linux is blowing Windows away on servers, and will continue to do so in the coming years. Servers and embedded uses, indeed, are where Linux currently does best, so that wasn't entirely surprising.
What received much less fanfare--and yet in many ways was much more notable--was the proportion of large businesses that are using it on the desktop. The figure cited, to be specific, is 36% of large enterprises currently using Linux on the desktop, while another 12% are evaluating or planning deployments over the next year.
To me, that just doesn't sound like the business world's response to something that is dead.
2. Consumers
It's also important to realize that Net Applications' measly .85% figure is by no means the only one out there--it's just the best publicized.
W3Counter, for one, gives a 1.5% share for Linux in September--a marginal improvement over the figure from Net Applications, but still a little better. Wikimedia's Visitor Log Analysis Report for this summer, meanwhile, puts Linux at 1.9%, while an O'Reilly Media estimate puts it as high as 10%.
Again, though, the bottom line is that there currently isn't any way to know exactly how many desktop users Linux has. Drawing conclusions from these figures is like conducting a census by counting only the people who happen to be out on the street at any given time.
3. The Ubuntu Factor
