Windows 8's share should jump this month. While Net Applications won't publish November's data until Saturday, if Windows 8's gains are similar to Vista's and Windows 7's, it should finish with a share between 1% and 2% for the month.
Early data aside, it's impossible to predict whether Windows 8's future will be more like Vista -- which peaked at 20.3% of all Windows computers in October 2009 -- or akin to Windows 7, which continues to gain usage share. At the end of October 2012, three years after its launch, Windows 7 accounted for 49% of all Windows-powered PCs.
Most analysts are forecasting a weak reception for Windows 8, blaming the poor global economy, the OS's confusing dual user interfaces, enterprise upgrade fatigue after migrating from XP to Windows 7, and fierce competition from rivals' tablets, including Apple's iPad, Amazon's Kindle Fire and Google's Nexus lines.
Gregg Keizer covers Microsoft, security issues, Apple, Web browsers and general technology breaking news for Computerworld. Follow Gregg on Twitter at @gkeizer, or subscribe to Gregg's RSS feed . His e-mail address is email@example.com.
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