Is desktop Linux too fragmented to succeed?
If one desktop Linux distribution were to gain a significant lead over all the others, it could boost mainstream Linux adoption significantly. After all, desktop Linux makes a compelling replacement for Windows XP for organizations about to refresh their hardware or software, offering lower per-head costs than a move to Vista or Windows 7. But so far, the ideal Linux desktop remains a moving target.
Unlike Windows or Mac OS X, each of which is the product of a single vendor, Linux comes in many different distributions that target the desktop, and each has its own look and feel. Some are based on the Gnome desktop environment, while others use KDE, and still others let the user choose between both. Icons, color schemes, desktop backgrounds, menus, directory arrangements, control panels, and available software choices will all vary depending on which distribution is installed. We speak of Linux as if it were a single, coherent entity, but from the user's perspective, there's really no such thing.
[ See why desktop Linux should be deployed in many businesses and government agencies. | Learn what's holding desktop Linux back from competing with Windows and Mac OS X. ]
Having a single version of Linux as the de facto standard for the enterprise desktop would make training easier, increase Linux's attractiveness to individual home users, and lower barriers of entry for commercial software vendors. All of this in turn would make Linux more competitive with Windows and Mac OS X. However, "one Linux to rule them all" seems unlikely. The market is rich with competition, and neither commercial Linux vendors nor open source developers are likely to agree on a single vision.
Could one contender emerge as the desktop Linux leader?
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Desktop Linux
I would like to take exception with your view point. The variety offered by the different Linux distros is one of the main reasons to make the move to Linux. I used MS products from 1991 to 2007, then made the switch and couldn't be happier.I view the selection in Linux distros like the famous 1984 Mac commercial. One only has to decide to leave the bland world of the corporate desktop and all the baggage it that comes with.
It is not fragmentation, it is choice.
Two words: Google Android
Two words: Google AndroidThat depends...
... on what your criteria for success are, doesn't it?I run Linux.
My mum runs Linux.
My dad runs Linux.
A friend of mine has just installed Ubuntu on his own and acts like a child in a toy store about it (ie. very excited).
Two other people I know have asked me where they could find out more on 'this Ubuntu thing'.
Everyday people go out of their way to learn about Linux, to install Linux on their desktops - even though they may have to leave much of their Windows-specific thinking behind and perhaps start from scratch. These people make a concerted effort to get Linux, to use it, and some subsequently advocate it to their friends. It's a sort of slow paced, quiet revolution. That to me is proof that desktop Linux is succeeding every day.