Desktop Linux: Why You Shouldn't Care
Recently, the Web site analytics company Net Applications came out with figures that showed that in April, the percentage of "client devices" used to surf the Web that were running Linux crossed the 1% level for the first time ever -- 1.02%, to be exact. The firm enthusiastically noted that "Linux has reached this important milestone on the client as Linux-based systems have become more functional, easier to use, and pre-installed on computers from vendors like Dell."
On the Web, you'd think manna had fallen from heaven. Linux backers touted the 1% breakthrough and prognosticated that Linux could eventually reach 20% market share.
My response: Not in this lifetime. And in any event, you simply shouldn't care about Linux on the desktop.
Let's start off with why Linux will never become an important desktop or notebook operating system. Linux has been around since 1991 -- a full 18 years -- and is available for free. Given that, the recent "milestone" of 1% market share doesn't seem so impressive.
In addition, if you do some digging in the Net Applications numbers, you'll see that from August to March, Linux use was largely flat. Last August, Linux's market share stood at 0.93% and then gradually declined before picking up again and reaching that 1.02% apex in April. So it's not as if Linux is on a skyrocket trajectory.
There's also some evidence that Linux market share won't likely ever get much higher than 1%, and certainly not more than 5%. The primary reason for the growth of Linux is the growing use of netbooks -- inexpensive devices used primarily to surf the Web and send and receive e-mail. When netbooks were first sold, Linux was the desktop operating system on about 30% of them. Netbooks have been the fastest-growing segment of the PC market, which is why Linux finally broke the 1% barrier.
But Linux isn't faring so well on netbooks these days. Analyst firm NPD Group found that, by the beginning of this year, only 10% of all netbooks sold had Linux on them, and that number is likely shrinking. And Windows 7 will run on netbooks -- something that Vista doesn't do -- which means that Linux market share will drop even further when Microsoft launches a big Windows 7 marketing campaign.
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Oh Boy
You just opened a can of worms.Sad, but true…
Linux is stable as hell, and the kernel can run like a dream even on the oldest of systems.But as soon as I try to do anything remotely entertaining on a Linux system (multimedia, graphic design, gaming) all of a sudden, I feel like I've been given something second-rate. Lets not even talk about trying to get video, sound and wireless adapter drivers working. I run a Linux box for a file server and firewall at home. But 99.9% of the time I'm using the Windows PC.
Linux has its place. And behind the scenes it is.
Reluctantly Agree
I have to agree given the current state of things - Linux is great but no one has yet successfully addressed making it easily configurable by those who are not inclined to get under the hood. Possibly this is because so many of its devotees are people who live to get under that hood and simply do not understand the need for simplicity and ease of use, or who understand it in a different way. At one point I had my entire family on it and it was OK up to a point, but the lack of professional music and art applications was the final straw and I had to move on.It's not as if Linux for the masses is impossible...in fact it's already been done. Apple's OS X is a UNIX-alike not that terribly different from Linux, and Apple has actually achieved UNIX with a human face. It's stable, easy to use for beginners, powerful for pros, and runs all manner of niche music and art programs. Apple concentrated on the single end-user experience and it shows.
Another thought: at this point if Linux were expertly preloaded most people would never know the difference except for fewer crashes; most users go with whatever comes on the machine and don't think about it until their disks fill up to about 90% with junk, spyware and highly fragmented files.