Palm Pre launch is high-stakes gamble

Saturday, the launch day for the Palm Pre smartphone, will be a big day all around for Palm, struggling carrier Sprint Nextel and anyone looking for another slick alternative to the Apple iPhone. But next Friday may have even more historic significance for all those parties, according to Avi Greengart.

"If we're still talking about Palm by the end of next week, then they won," said Greengart, an industry analyst at Current Analysis.

The launch of a new generation of the iPhone, widely expected to take place at Apple's Worldwide Developer Conference in San Francisco on Monday, is likely to suck all the air out of the mobile-phone room just two days after the Pre goes on sale at Sprint stores across the U.S., Greengart said. Speculation is revolving around a possible iPhone price cut to US$99, video camera capability, a faster processor and other significant changes to that blockbuster handset. But Apple may not even need those.

"Apple could do absolutely nothing next week, and it would still be a juggernaut," Greengart said. "Apple is in total command of its destiny."

Palm, by implication, is not. The company pioneered handheld computers in the 1990s and later had a hit with one of the first smartphones, the Treo. But after letting its hardware and OS languish, the company needed the fresh start that the Pre and its brand-new WebOS platform represent. Fortunately for Palm, it's entering a smartphone market that is steadily growing and has room for several other platforms in addition to the iPhone, Greengart said.

Average consumers are starting to embrace smartphones for their extended data capabilities, moving the devices beyond technology aficionados, according to industry analysts. Worldwide smartphone sales grew 12.7 percent to 36.4 million units in the first quarter of this year, even as overall handset sales fell 9.4 percent, according to Gartner. The iPhone and Research In Motion's BlackBerry devices were the biggest winners, the research company said.

While that means more opportunity for the Pre to succeed, competition is also growing, with more than a dozen new Android-based phones coming later this year and the Nokia N97 going on sale in the U.S. later this month. The stakes are high for both Palm and Sprint.

The third-largest U.S. mobile operator sees the new Palm as a chance to show off its network and an improved customer experience, according to David Owens, director of consumer marketing. Sprint was once plagued by low marks on customer service but has made great strides in the past several quarters, he said.

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