Gartner: Multicore, clouds, social nets top disruptive list

Multicore processors, cloud computing, user interfaces, social networks/social
software and Web mashups top a list of 10 'disruptive technologies' set
to reshape the IT landscape between 2008 and 2012, according to Gartner analysts
David Cearley and Carl Claunch.

The remaining five are ubiquitous computing, contextual computing, augmented
reality, semantics and virtualization.

The analysts are to present their conclusions during
a session on Tuesday at Gartner's Symposium ITxpo in Las Vegas.

Multicore processors are providing new advances, but single-threaded applications
won't be able to take advantage of their power, the analysts note in a document
related to the presentation: "A single-thread application may drive an
eight-core system to only 12.5 percent utilization as it can use only one-eighth
of the available cores."

Enterprises should therefore identify applications "that will need remediation
to continue to meet service-level requirements in the multicore era," they
wrote.

The leader of the list's second half -- ubiquitous computing -- will also gain
traction in the next several years, according to the analysts.

"The work of Mark Weiser and other researchers at Xerox's PARC painted
a picture 20 years ago of the coming third
wave of computing -- one where computers surround us, yet are invisibly
embedded into our environment," they write. "The vision of the third
wave is the relegation of computers to hidden roles, exposing only enough technology
to fit the need. Computers in cars are hidden behind steering wheels and simple
buttons; in the future, most computers will be equally transparent."

This trend will be powered by a combination of means, such as radio frequency
identification (RFID) tags, portable and widely accessible data, and accompanying
advances in networking technologies, the analysts predict.

The analysts also said:

-- By 2010, Web mashups "will be the dominant model (80 percent) for the
creation of composite enterprise applications."

-- "The concepts, language and technologies of consumer social software
will become part of mainstream workplace technology vendors by 2010."

-- By 2010, It will cost less than US$1 to add a three-axis accelerometer --
which allows a device, such as Nintendo's Wii controller, to sense when and
how it is being moved -- to a piece of electronic equipment. "Acceleration
and attitude (tilt) can be combined with technologies such as wireless to perform
functions such as 'touch to exchange business cards,'" the analysts offer
as an example of how the technology could be applied in the future.