Gates: Next decade will bring huge software advances

by Grant Gross

March 13, 2008 —

The coming decade will bring even more advances in software and computing than
the last 10 years, bringing new ways to watch television, to use telephones
and to input information into computers, Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates predicted
Thursday.

Changes in software and computing over the next 10 years will be "very
substantial" and will permeate all facets of life, Gates told a crowd of
about 1,100 people during a Northern Virginia Technology Council breakfast in
Washington, D.C. Computers and software have changed how people take photographs
and purchase music, but other industries will be affected just as much in coming
years, he said.

"There are great realms of activity that digital approach has not yet
touched on," Gates said.

Among Gates' predictions for the coming decade:

-- Television will be married with the Internet, allowing for personalized
news and commercials. People will watch more of their home movies on their TV
screens, and TV sets and computers will be increasingly connected. Television
will be an "utterly different thing," he said.

-- Telephone sets will increasingly be able to handle video, e-mail and other
digital media. Speech recognition will allow telephone users to ask for information
such as nearby restaurants.

-- More and more software will be delivered as a service over the Internet,
instead of residing on individual computers.

-- Computer users will have more options for inputting information beyond the
mouse and keyboard. Speech and handwriting recognition software will gain in
popularity. Computers will move off the desktop, with speech recognition and
motion-sensing cameras allowing users to control screens embedded into desktops
or whiteboards.

-- More schools will ditch textbooks for tablet PCs that hold dozens of books.
New types of textbooks will increasingly contain video and other media.

-- Companies and government agencies will embrace three-dimensional computing,
giving users new ways of interacting with virtual worlds. Students will increasingly
use software to simulate experiments.

"In a broad sense, we can say that information workers ... are not yet
empowered to collaborate in the way that they should," Gates said. "I
think the opportunity is stronger than it's ever been."

Gates said he's "very optimistic" about the future of the tech industry,
even with the current questions about the U.S. economy. "I don't think
anything will stop the rapid advances," he said.

Gates also repeated his concerns about the number of H-1B and other immigrant
worker visas available to U.S. companies. He testified before the U.S. Congress
on the issue Wednesday.

On most technology, the U.S. portion of the world's innovation is "extremely
high," Gates said, but the U.S. government needs to be aware that other
countries are catching up. U.S. policymakers need to look at long-term implications
of immigration policy, he said.

Some lawmakers and tech worker groups have questioned the need for more high-skill
immigrant visas, saying many U.S. workers could fill those jobs.

IDG News Service