January 03, 2011, 9:31 AM — Well my friends, 2010 was quite a year and as is our want, in this, the first issue of the New Year, we throw caution to the winds, dust off our crystal balls and, seeing as we're all consenting adults, indulge in a little hardcore prognostication. But before we head off into the wild blue yonder, let's take a look at my forecasting for last year.
I began with generalities (always a safe way to go), opining that 2010 would be "the year of recovery, the year of realigning that which needs aligning, along with cleaning up what's dirty, polishing up what's tarnished, primping up what's, er, unprimped, and pimping up that which is unpimped. In short, generally getting ourselves out of the morass of negativity and gloom that was 2009."
In a broad sense I think I was right on this (I get one point) but the recovery has definitely been softer than expected and my thought that "confidence is going to be erratic" was pretty much spot on (I get another point).
As a "re-digression" (if such a thing there be) of the digression in last year's column, I'm pleased to note that the prediction by Igor Panarin that the U.S. would split into six parts starting in June 2010 as a result of "a civil war triggered by mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation", didn't come to fruition. We may have had the economic collapse and we certainly have the moral degradation, but no civil war, so, Igor, it looks like you lost that bet.
As for the rest: I predicted user experience engineering becoming more important and I was right, sort of (score a half point); data warehouse analytics, huge but not as talked about as I expected (another half point); enterprises forging ahead with server virtualization (check, one point); large scale enterprise adoption of cloud computing despite the risks and the gotchas (check, one point); Windows 7 a success (check, one point); Android-based cell phones taking the gloss off the iPhone market (check, one point); netbook market exploding in 2010 ... well, if you include the Apple iPad I was spot on and even without the iPad, I was generally right (one point).