November 03, 2008, 11:10 AM — While my precognition skills aren't perfect (I have yet to win a Lottery), I certainly agree with the skills shown by Mike Elgan in his ComputerWorld article “Why Netbooks Will Soon Cost $99.†It first ran on Halloween, so will this be trick or treat?
I'm betting treat, because Elgan makes a good point that carriers do this with cell phones thousands of times per week, and small laptops, or netbooks, are getting down to, or even below, the cost of many smart phones. Since the carriers subsidize our smart phones, they'll probably subsidize our netbooks. Makes sense to me, because carriers aren't overloaded with genius marketing people.
Or maybe this is genius. If you buy a min-laptop that comes tied to a certain carriers Cellular Data Network (call it Mobile Broadband or whatever brand name you want), you'll pay the carrier another $60-$100 per month. Forget that free WiFi nonsense, pay your carrier for constant Internet access from anywhere, any time.
AT&T, according to Elgan, has done deals with Lenovo and Ericsson to sell ThinkPads at a discount if customers sign up for AT&T's mobile broadband. But AT&T only subsidizes the cost of the mobile broadband hardware and service sign up, about $150. Those buyers jumping on this train paid way too much for their ticket.
Now if you offer a typical mobile professional a usable small laptop for $99 that costs between $400-$600, that's a strong value proposition. Since carriers love to bundle services so you don't know how much you're overpaying for each feature, I'm betting a bundle of smart phone with netbook and associated services will soon be offered for $200 upfront and $100-$150 per month service fees on a two year contract.
This bundle provides what every road warrior needs: smart phone for calls and easy Web access, along with mini-laptop for file and application access. Need to make a call or check your calendar? Whip out that smart phone. Need to log in to SalesForce.com or a fantasy football Web site during lunch? Whip out that mini-laptop.
We're not quite to this point yet. But I agree with Elgan that the day will be here soon. I'm betting spring 2009 to help make up for a weak Christmas buying season.
