So, does this mean it is time to send Flash out to pasture? Not necessarily, not now, nor even for the foreseeable future, due to a number of reasons.
One thing to consider is Flash's still powerful legacy. "The old adage goes the best language to use is the language you know," says IDC software analyst Al Hilwa. While the latest versions of the browsers support HTML5 for the most part, the vast majority in use are older versions, and don't fully support the standard. This is particularly true for enterprise users, whose browsers don't get updated as often. We may be dealing with pre-HTML5 browsers as late as 2015, Hilwa predicts. And if you want your content to reach these un-updated masses, you will need to go with Flash.
Another consideration to keep in mind is that just as HTML5 and related standards continue to be developed, Flash itself is not standing still. And, generally speaking, a single company like Adobe can develop and implement features on a platform more quickly than a standards body, Gourdol says.
"We're going to continue to push Flash forward and bring new innovations to it," Gourdol promises. Such innovations will be "a blueprint for further development to bring back to HTML."
And, Eich's proclamation to the contrary, there are a number of things that Flash can do that even the most savvy HTML5 programmer can't engineer. One major example is the three-dimensional imaging that was introduced in Flash 11, which allows developers to write 3D games and other immersive environments. "They can build console-quality games to run in the browser," Gourdol says.
In short, as long as there will be businesses looking to get ahead of their competition, and as long as Adobe keeps thinking up useful innovations that will provide content providers with this leading edge, there will be a market for Flash.
