June 07, 2012, 2:08 PM — A decline for Oracle over the next 15 years is inevitable. It will be impossible to sustain the RDBMS-only paradigm against all logic as the new wave of databases lumped in under NoSQL and big data takes over. Oracle is responding with partnerships, and it already has a NoSQL database, but it's difficult to imagine a transition that leaves Oracle's revenue stream intact -- smells almost like Novell, circa 1996.
Yet the RDBMS will take its time to fade. The reason? Aside from the obvious -- it's an entrenched technology -- the advantages that made the RDBMS ubiquitous in the first place are going to keep it around a bit longer.
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It may surprise you that I don't consider "transactions" to be one of those advantages. They've been overrated for some time. It's absurd to purport that a transaction, which must be too fine-grained to be useful across multiple request/response cycles, is an indispensible tool for most applications. Moreover, there are other ways to assure reasonable consistency.
The key advantage of the RDBMS, rather, is standardization. The history of relational databases has proven that even a poor job of standardization can create a market better than none at all. Indeed, standardization is the key obstacle to the takeover by the new breed of databases.
A new era for dataA transition to NoSQL (which I prefer to call NewDB) is inevitable. The relational database was created in an era of slow 10MB hard drives and low expectations. NoSQL is the stuff of the Internet age.