SOT I had no idea it was going to turn out to be a relatively precise prediction VO Gordon Moore on the law he created that has helped guide technology’s evolution for fifty years. INTRO Moore’s Law has paved the way for faster, smaller and cheaper computing devices. It’s a theory about the economics and scaling of silicon chips.
Essentially, Moore’s Law is a prediction made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit would double every two years. This means that you’d get twice as much power- improving the performance of a device- and at the same time, reduce its cost.
At an Intel event celebrating the 50th anniversary of the theory, Moore shared his thoughts on his famous observation that became a blueprint for modern electronics.
SOT Cofounder & Chairman Emeritus, Intel Oh, I’m amazed. The original prediction was to look at 10 years… this was going from about 60 elements on an integrated circuit to 60,000// But some day it has to stop. No exponential like this goes on forever.
VO Moore was interviewed by New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, who tried to get him to predict how long he thinks the law will continue. But the most Moore said was that it could go on for possibly another five to ten years. He did say he was amazed at what advances in computing had made possible.
SOT Google Earth—I could not have imagined something coming out like that, let alone being free// We’ve just seen the beginning of what computers are going to do for us// It’s kind of the evolution of machine intelligence if you wish. This is not happening in one step, happening in a whole bunch of increments. I never thought I’d see an autonomous automobile driving on the freeway.
VO The event held at San Francisco’s Exploratorium also featured demos of dancing spiderbots, flying drones and a braille printer powered by Intel chips. CEO Brian Krzanich explained how Moore’s Law set an expectation that the company has met.
SOT We took the 4004, which was Intel’s first CPU and we applied Moore’s law//we said how far have we advanced with that product// We got 3500 times more performance using today’s core i5 processor, it’s got 90X more energy effienct and about 60K times lower cost.
So what has been Gordon Moore’s biggest lesson from Moore’s Law?
SOT The one thing I’ve learned—once you’ve made a successful prediction, avoid making another one.
In San Francisco, Melissa Aparicio, IDG News Service.