"When you look, what percentage of data centers are virtualized in the whole world? It's more like 20 percent," Song said. "Those are the customers that are going to be the next battleground, for VMware and Microsoft and Citrix and whoever else has hypervisors or virtualization solutions. It's going to be tough."
It's going to be tougher because VMware not only seems to have an obsession with making sure its customers virtualized infrastructures are VMware end to end, it seems to want to get rid of Windows entirely – on servers and on PCs.
"That's their whole desktop approach, to get users away from the traditional Windows thick-computing device," Song said. "VDI, and remote-hosted desktops and their phone virtualization platform MVP – [VMware] are doing everything they can to get people away from Windows which in the short term is just an impossibility."
It might be in the long term as well, at least if it means having a competitor knock off Windows with a superior product. A lot of vendors and a lot of products that are superior for specific tasks or situations? That might be possible. It's happening already in smartphones and tablets. Not so much as a wholesale abandonment of Windows, which is what VMware appears to be after, as a generalized, piece by piece migration to something that seems better in a particular situation.
Building from scratch a whole series of products that can replace Windows in every use case and every instance in which it's entrenched now? No; forget it.
A gradual descent into irrelevancy as people choose smartphones or tablets or something else that doesn't run Windows until everyone seems to still have a few Windows machines around but can't remember the last time they logged in to one? Like when you realized you'd adopted ATMs so completely you couldn't remember the last time you talked to a human teller?
Or online banking to the extent that you couldn't remember the last time you wrote out a bill by hand?
That might work.
Corralling all the VARs or end users in Orlando for an annual brainwashing to convince them the all-VMware vision is the right way to look at the world?
Never. Not even for the VARs from farther north whose brains are still unfreezing in the tropical sunshine and aren't working as well as they should.